UNWTO predicts international tourist arrivals to fall by 80% in 2020

The latest data from the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) shows, international tourism down 22 per cent in Q1 and could decline by 60-80 per cent over the whole year with 67 million fewer international tourists up to March translates into US$80 billion in lost exports. UNWTO has outlined three possible future scenarios depending on how the crisis unfolds. This places millions of livelihoods at risk and threatens to roll back progress made in advancing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Zurab Pololikashvili, Secretary-General, UNWTO, said, “Tourism has been hit hard, with millions of jobs at risk in one of the most labour-intensive sectors of the economy. Tourism has been hit hard, with millions of jobs at risk in one of the most labour-intensive sectors of the economy.

Available data reported by destinations point to a 22 per cent decline in arrivals in the first three months of the year, according to the latest UNWTO World Tourism Barometer. Arrivals in March dropped sharply by 57 per cent following the start of a lockdown in many countries, as well as the widespread introduction of travel restrictions and the closure of airports and national borders. This translates into a loss of 67 million international arrivals and about US$80 billion in receipts (exports from tourism). Although Asia and the Pacific shows the highest impact in relative and absolute terms (-33 million arrivals), the impact in Europe, though lower in percentage, is quite high in volume (-22 million).

The estimates regarding the recovery of international travel is more positive in Africa and the Middle East with most experts foreseeing recovery still in 2020. Experts in the Americas are the least optimistic and least likely to believe in recovery in 2020, while in Europe and Asia the outlook is mixed, with half of the experts expecting to see recovery within this year.